NATO Security Guarantees: Demilitarization of Parts of Ukraine Under Discussion
Member states of NATO are considering scenarios for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. One key proposal involves establishing a demilitarized zone under the supervision of European forces.
Security Guarantees: Balancing Support for Ukraine and Deterrence of Russia
NATO’s discussions include providing Ukraine with security guarantees to bolster its defense capabilities without provoking Russia.
A high-ranking NATO diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated that a demilitarized zone could be part of a broader ceasefire agreement. European troops would patrol the zone and ensure compliance, reducing the risk of renewed hostilities.
Strengthening Ukraine’s Position
To prepare Ukraine for negotiations, NATO is ramping up arms supplies. The alliance plans to double its efforts, delivering advanced air defense systems, artillery, and armored vehicles to Kyiv.
U.S. Position: Trump’s Administration Plans
American media report that incoming President Donald Trump is developing his own peace plan, which includes:
- Ceding territories lost to Russia by Ukraine.
- A 20-year moratorium on Ukraine joining NATO.
- Freezing the conflict while maintaining arms supplies.
Trump’s advisers suggest establishing a demilitarized zone along the current front line, patrolled by European forces. U.S. peacekeepers are not expected to participate.
Russia’s Conditions for Negotiations
President Vladimir Putin has reaffirmed Russia’s willingness to negotiate, provided its terms—set in June 2024—are met:
- Recognition of Crimea, Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson as Russian territory.
- Ukraine’s neutrality and non-aligned status.
- Complete demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.
- Lifting of Western sanctions against Russia.
Challenges and Risks
- Difficulty in Reaching Compromises: The positions of the parties differ significantly, complicating negotiations.
- Risk of Escalation: Deploying European troops to a demilitarized zone might be perceived as a threat by Russia.
- Ukraine’s Political Stability: Territorial concessions or delays in NATO membership could spark internal protests.
What’s Next?
Further developments will depend on the willingness of the parties to compromise. The creation of a demilitarized zone and security guarantees will likely dominate future negotiations.
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